You're darned right it does.
What Randy Couture (16-9) brings to the table: You can make an argument that Couture is the greatest ground and pound fighter in the history of MMA. With the exception of his final two fights against Chuck Liddell, he hasn't really ever found himself unable to use his superior wrestling skills to take an opponent down. Further, his ground control skills and knowledge of how to hurt people from the top position are also outstanding.
Beyond this, Couture is very good defensively on his feet, is a killer in the clinch, and always comes to fight in shape. His overall striking is somewhat underrated, though he doesn't necessarily tend to demonstrate a lot of power on his feet. In terms of submissions, he's really not a threat. That said, he does have good submission defense.
But he really hasn't fought a guy with the level of submission skills that Nogueira has in a long time, if ever.
What Antonio Nogueira (31-5-1) brings to the table: Nogueira in a nutshell during his prime? How about one of the greatest submission fighters of all-time coupled with legendary toughness? Beyond that, the man they sometimes call Big Nog has shown very solid boxing skills in the past and always comes to fight in shape. Recently, though, he's had some difficulty on his feet in fights (ever since getting dropped by Heath Herring with a huge kick at UFC 73). Since that time, both Tim Sylvia and Frank Mir have proven able to hurt him easily and often on his feet. That said, word is that he was hurt and sick before the Mir fight.
So here's the question: Has Nogueira just been through too many wars that finally caught up with him? Is that the reason why he's found himself on his back too many times after striking exchanges lately? Or were the problems simply due to injuries he's on the way back from?
Randy Couture vs. Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira Prediction: Though Couture is the much older fighter in this one, Nogueira has been through more fights (and tough ones at that). So he may be worse for the wear on his feet. In the past, most would've have said that Couture had the advantage inside on his feet, whereas Nogueira had it from a distance. Lately, however, Nogueira just hasn't looked that good from a distance either, nor has he demonstrated that amazing jaw.
Couture has had difficulty continuing his ground and pound onslaughts against larger heavyweights. The good thing for him is that Nogueira is not a very big heavyweight, so that shouldn't be an issue. Along with this, The Natural should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, as his wrestling skills are far superior.
Once they hit the ground in this one, if Couture chooses to bring things there in the first place, things could get very interesting. Couture is a master at ground control, positioning, and ground and pound. Nogueira is good enough off of his back to catch anyone in a submission. Couture has good submission defense but hasn't been up against a heavyweight with this kind of submissions in... Well, maybe never.
In the end, though, it appears that Couture could conceivably win this fight either in the clinch on his feet or on the ground (or both). What's more, he will almost assuredly decide where the battle takes place. Could Nogueira connect from a distance on his feet or come through with a submission? Absolutely. Will he?
Randy Couture wins via third round TKO (clinch work and ground and pound).
Note: This is a three round, non-championship bout. There will be no fourth round, as previously indicated.
