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UFC 158 Predictions


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Georges St. Pierre vs. Nick Diaz Prediction
UFC 158 Predictions

Nick Diaz defeats Thomas Denny.

Courtesy of Sherdog.com
What Georges St. Pierre brings to the table: St. Pierre is one of the greatest pound for pound fighters in the world for several reasons. First, he’s an amazing wrestler, perhaps the best in any division at using his takedowns, takedown defense, and ground control skills in the UFC's Octagon. Next, he's a cardio and athletic marvel. In fact, for my money he's the most explosive MMA competitor currently in the fight game.

Beyond the aforementioned, St. Pierre also possesses better than average technical striking (he’s a Kyokushin black belt with significant boxing skills), lots of power, and excellent submissions/submission defense.

Said another way, when you fight him, you know that you're about to take on a fighter with no real technical weaknesses and a load of strengths.

What Nick Diaz brings to the table: Diaz is one of the toughest fighters in the world (we actually have him listed at second on our current Toughest MMA Fighters List, in fact). Hit him with a sledgehammer, a bat, whatever, and he’ll just keep coming. What’s more, he may just possess the best MMA ready boxing skills in the sport. But perhaps his most impressive strength is his cardio, which is second to none; he simply continually overwhelms opponents until they get tired. They get slower; he doesn’t.

Beyond that, Diaz is also one of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioners in the game. He’s a submission nightmare with one of the best guards in the game today.

The weaknesses? Well, he’s not that physically powerful. Further, his wrestling is a comparative weakness.

Georges St. Pierre vs. Nick Diaz Prediction: Make no mistake, St. Pierre can take Diaz down. Will it be as easy as some think? No, because Diaz’s takedown defense has gotten a lot better over the years. That said, St. Pierre will not be able to do what he did to BJ Penn the last time he fought him, which was continually take Penn down and wear him out. Why? Because Diaz doesn’t wear out. So we can expect that the former Strikeforce champion will continually keep his Canadian counterpart honest with submission attempts due to the fact that he won’t fatigue like other opponents do. What’s more, I believe that Diaz is more dangerous on his feet than St. Pierre, is very unlikely to be hurt significantly on his feet, and as the fight wears on, his advantage will increase, due to his cardio.

St. Pierre, of course, will be in great shape too. He’s also much stronger and more athletic than his Diaz is.

So here’s the first question- will St. Pierre have enough to continually take Diaz down and at least keep him there? In the end, I actually believe that he won’t. Diaz, by rounds three or four, will begin to gain the advantage due to his cardio (assuming that St. Pierre will be unable to stop him). I think that this will likely put St. Pierre in danger on his feet, leaving him more tired than he has ever been before in a professional bout. So the next question- will he be able to survive the Diaz onslaught late in the fight? If so, St. Pierre will win by decision. If not…

Yep, I’m calling an upset that seems almost blasphemous. But he’s got to lose some time, right?

Nick Diaz defeats Georges St. Pierre by TKO in round five.

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