The skinny on Lyoto Machida (14-0): Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida is as good as they come at avoiding punishment. His unique Shotokan karate background helps him to implement a style of striking characterized by staying out of an opponents' range until an opening presents itself, at which point fast and brutal offense comes and goes quickly (when he moves out of range after the strike). Along with this, Machida has won most of his fights (eight) by decision, as he would often move out of range after striking an opponent rather than follow up looking for the knockout.
Recently, though, things have changed. Machida has won two of his last three by way of stoppage against Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (submission) and Thiago Silva (knockout) with a more aggressive style when sensing blood.
Beyond the above, Machida has outstanding takedown defense, better than average takedowns, and underrated submissions. The only question on him is, how will he handle adversity? You know, if a fight gets a little brutal. Of course, the reason why he hasn't been forced to handle much adversity is because he's soundly defeated all of his opponents.
The skinny on Rashad Evans (13-0-1): Former TUF 2 Champion Rashad Evans certainly has something in common with Machida: they're both undefeated fighters. Beyond that, however, the two are quite different. Evans is a very athletic and powerful fighter with outstanding wrestling skills. What's more, his hands (standard boxing) are quite good, as he recently proved when knocking out Chuck Liddell. On top of it all, he's done quite well under adversity, defeating Brad Imes in the TUF 2 Finale, Forrest Griffin after losing the early rounds, and Michael Bisping in a close decision.
In the end, Evans' toughness is highly underrated.
That said, he is prone to lulls (first round against Liddell, beginning of the fight against Griffin). What's more, his submission game is still being nurtured, even if his submission defense is more than solid.
Lyoto Machida vs. Rashad Evans Prediction: Both of these fighters are at the top of their game and are the class, along with Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Forrest Griffin, of the UFC light heavyweight division. In other words, both are good enough to win, making this a tough pick.
What you have to ask is, can Rashad Evans make this into an ugly match; you know, one of those blood and guts fights that Machida has yet to prove himself in? On the ground, this seems unlikely. Tito Ortiz outwrestled Evans in their fight at UFC 73 until "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" fatigued late in the bout. On the flip side, Ortiz was highly unsuccessful in getting Machida to the canvas at UFC 84. So if Evans is going to have trouble getting his adversary to the ground, that would appear to leave the stand up game. Evans has faster hands and is more athletic, but Machida is a much more diverse and technically sound striker. That doesn't mean he can't get hit and hurt; it just means that it's going to be awful hard for Evans to penetrate all those years of striking on Machida's part. It simply runs in his family.
Finally, if Evans is able to close the distance without getting the fight to the canvas, that leaves the clinch. Machida trains with Anderson Silva quite often, so guess is that may be a tough spot for Evans to do damage as well.
In the end, Evans is an underrated fighter. Further, if he can score a big punch or turn this into an ugly fight he has a good shot at winning. But the chances of that happening seem smaller than it not happening.
Lyoto Machida wins via unanimous decision. Evans is a tough guy; therefore, a tough out.
