What Nate Diaz (10-4) brings to the table: Nate Diaz is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and submission specialist that is as good as they come in the lightweight division at making people tap. Beyond that, he uses his long arms and cardio to keep opponents off balance on their feet until such time as he's ready to hurt them on the canvas. Finally, he has solid takedowns, including a hip throw that he works regularly, and is as tough a fighter as you'll find. That said, Diaz sometimes finds it difficult to keep more powerful wrestlers from repeatedly taking him down and controlling him, as Joe Stevenson showed in his recent victory over him.
What Melvin Guillard (22-7-2) brings to the table: In a word, Guillard brings athleticism. He's a powerhouse with good takedowns, takedown defense, and ground control skills. However, his major strength lies in his ability to deliver bone crushing strikes on opponents. Still, he's been somewhat inconsistent in the UFC and has had some difficulty with submission defense against elite practitioners. That said, Guillard is making improvements in this area.
Prediction: In the end, Diaz has the kind of toughness, reach, and technical striking on his feet to deal effectively with Guillard's athleticism. In fact, he could give Guillard some problems on his feet. Regardless if that holds true or not, Guillard probably does not have the kind of ground skills to survive on the canvas for any significant length of time with Diaz. Along with this, bank on Diaz getting this one to the ground, even if it means pulling guard, and working his magic from there.
Nate Diaz wins via second round submission.
