The last time Couture lost two straight heavyweight encounters, as he recently did against Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, he dropped down a weight class as well. And that time, things worked out pretty good for him. The question is, will things work out just as well at 205 against Vera?
What Randy Couture (16-10) brings to the table: Couture is a superior wrestler and perhaps the greatest ground and pound fighter in the history of MMA. Along with this, his takedowns, takedown defense, ground control skills, and knowledge of how to hurt people from the top position are simply on another level.
Couture is also hard to hurt on his feet, regularly destroys people in the clinch, and has the kind of cardio that makes younger fighters envious. That said, the last time he fought at 205 his hand speed seemed somewhat diminished in comparison to his opponents, even if his striking against Nogueira in his most recent fight looked very strong (even without a lot in the line of power). Though Couture is not a submission threat, he does have good submission defense.
What Brandon Vera (11-3) brings to the table: Vera's strength is in his well-roundedness. He's a former collegiate wrestler, so he likely possesses good takedowns and ground control skills, even if we've rarely seen him use these in MMA. He also has good takedown defense and better than average submission skills from both the top and bottom positions. However, it's Vera's Muay Thai skills that are often lauded. Along with this, he possesses excellent low kicks, good hands, and more than adequate power.
That said, he has never taken on a fighter with Couture's ground and pound capability, and has lost most of the big fights he's partaken in. So it's hard to know how he's going to respond.
Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera Prediction: One has to wonder if Couture's age will catch up to him in terms of hand speed when he begins to throw down against a very good striker in a lighter weight class. Still, it's hard to question The Natural's cardio or wrestling. In other words, one has to ask themselves if Vera will be able to land a big punch or kick before Couture clinches with him and takes him down. Answer- probably not. Vera likely doesn't have the takedown defense necessary to thwart his opponent's wrestling- almost no one does- and he's not known for a lot of one strike knockouts. On the ground, Couture should dominate, as Vera's submission skills, though good, aren't likely to catch him if Nogueira's didn't.
The final question? Does Couture have the cardio to keep taking Vera down and pounding on him through three rounds? Gotta figure that he does. But guess is that "The Natural's" ground and pound will begin to wear on Vera, and by the second stanza he'll be able to improve his position enough to really bring the heat. And that should translate to. . .
Randy Couture wins via second round TKO.
